Futurology
Futurology is a term coined by futurologist Ray Kurzweil to describe the study of the future.
Why is futurology important?
Futurology is important because it helps us understand the future. It helps us predict what is going to happen in the future and helps us plan for it. It provides us with long-term business advantages and the flexibility to consider how to maximise opportunities.
Prediction Techniques•
-Looking at trends and extrapolating to the future is one way to predict.
-Looking at emerging technologies and seeing how they might impact other areas is another way to predict.
Computing Laws
Moore's Law is a prediction about transistor density on integrated chips made by Gordon E. Moore in 1965. From 1965 to 2013, the law was remarkably accurate, with transistor density doubling every two years. The trend has shifted slightly since 2013, with transistor density doubling every three years rather than every two. The increase in transistor density means chips will run faster. How much faster is determined by a number of factors, such as the clock speed of the chip.
Kurzweil extends Moore's Law with the Law of Accelerating returns
Moore Law has become a goal for development team as doubling of processing power every two years provides the stimulus for upgrades and sales.
Processing Power
- Doubling of processing power can be interpreted very widely.
- More cores (processors on the chip)
- Faster speeds
- Faster communication on and between chips
Cynical view
By keeping Moore's law true – any computing equipment appears slow and out-of-date after about three years .Despite the improved performance, the average cost of purchasing a computer has decreased.
Paradigm Shift
Massive changes in tech and their costs can be so difficult to predict:
examples:
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